News & Commentary
By Adam Tosh, CFA, CAIA | March 25, 2026Private credit funds make loans to companies – sort of, kind of – in a way that’s similar to how banks make loans. The key difference is that banks are regulated and private credit funds are not. Over time, banks have steered away from lending to smaller, less creditworthy, and more heavily indebted companies that typically comprise the private debt space, leaving the door open to what is often called “shadow banking.” This shift has afforded private credit funds considerable freedom to make loans under a wide variety of terms. Underwriting standards can be more relaxed, though the borrowers pay for that flexibility through higher interest rates. Unlike traditional bank loans or publicly traded bonds, these loans are not traded in public markets. That makes them inherently difficult to value and difficult at best to sell quickly, rendering the market opaque and illiquid. Nonetheless, institutional investors have poured capital into private credits over the last five to ten years, lured by higher…
By Adam Tosh, CFA, CAIA | March 17, 2026On Saturday, February 28, 2026, Operation Epic Fury began, one of the Middle East region’s most expansive military operations in decades. Markets around the globe have been digesting, repricing, and adjusting to the evolving military and diplomatic situation, as well as its implications for the global economy. This includes supply-and-demand concerns for key commodities, with crude oil and gold spiking higher, along with rising trade and geopolitical risks. Often, as these situations unfold, the length of military campaigns tend to persist longer than initially anticipated. While the military phase may last weeks to months, the supply disruptions can last several…
By Adam Tosh, CFA, CAIA | December 31, 2025Economic Backdrop: Resilient, but Narrow U.S. economic growth remains positive but uneven. Real GDP rose at a strong 4.3% annualized pace in 3Q25, driven largely by consumer spending and net exports. However, growth in 2025 has been volatile, reflecting import distortions, shifting fiscal dynamics, and policy uncertainty. The expansion increasingly relies on continued consumer stability and optimistic assumptions around productivity gains from artificial intelligence, leaving the cycle vulnerable if either weakens. Inflation continues to cool, with CPI at 2.68% in December and core inflation remaining modestly above target. While the trend is encouraging, inflation volatility may persist due to shelter normalization, trade disruptions, and tariff uncertainty.…
By Adam Tosh, CFA, CAIA | July 5, 2025Have we avoided the U.S. recession that almost everyone was calling for in early 2025? Are jobs plentiful and the unemployment rate likely to fall? Are consumers flush with money and new credit with the ability to pay even higher prices (i.e., able to keep up with further inflation)? If that’s the case, it would be no wonder that the U.S. Federal Reserve would be on hold. Under such circumstances, it would seem appropriate for the Fed to be outright hawkish, seeking to raise interest rates to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating. Yet, as we move through midyear, the…
By Adam Tosh, CFA, CAIA | June 18, 2025How quickly things can shift. What looked like absolute certainty at the beginning of November, has seemingly done an about-face. Prior to the election of Donald Trump, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points and followed with another 25 basis points reduction just after Election Day. The markets had been pricing in five to six additional cuts. The “doves were in the air” as the U.S. Stock markets hit all-time highs and interest rates fell, with investors seeking to get ahead of the anticipated rate cuts. Initially, fear was a concern for investors as…
By Allison Capps, AIF | April 25, 2025Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC) is pleased to announce the launch of its newest company, Alaska Investment Management (AIM). AIM is an institutional asset manager headquartered in Anchorage, Alaska, with investment portfolio offerings that include Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO), Intermediate, and Short-Duration Fixed Income (i.e., cash management) strategies.
By Adam Tosh, CFA, CAIA | March 23, 2025With perceptions of heighted geopolitical risk along with weakening economic results, uncertainty continues to persist and prevail across markets. The Trump administration continues to vacillate between will-he or won’t he tariff speculations, almost daily changing policy pronouncements, and growing angst over a potential government shutdown (March 14th) appear to be wearing investor nerves thin and stirring the demand for defensive assets. Nonetheless, U.S. Investment Grade Credit spreads have recently been trading at historically tight spreads (i.e., the additional compensation for taking on the additional risks over the risk-free rate). Credit conditions for corporate borrowers appear to be favorable. …
By Adam Tosh, CFA, CAIA | January 31, 2025“Ladies and gentlemen, the Captain has turned on the fasten seat belt sign. We are now crossing a zone of turbulence. Please return to your seats and keep your seat belts fastened. Thank you.” With President Donald Trump taking the oath of office for his second term on January 20th and being sworn in as the 47th president, he immediately began signing a flurry of executive orders with sweeping reversals of the Biden agenda and began to transform the federal government. Along with the President’s cabinet nominees, border protection plans, a drilling vow to increase oil & gas production, a…
By Adam Tosh, CFA, CAIA | September 19, 2024We’re getting good at defying gravity. The U.S. stock markets, across the board, are at or near their all-time highs. The U.S. dollar remains strong relative to the euro, yen, loonie, and pound. In an effort to help avoid a U.S. recession, the Federal Reserve dovishly cut the Fed Funds interest rate by ½ of a percent on September 18th. This new easing action triggered other interest rates to fall and bond price to rise (as bond prices and rates move inversely). Precious metals continued their nearing 30% ascent YTD. The soaring price of coffee (close to 40% higher YTD)…